{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "dataset_id": "ky-2026-polls-and-ratings",
  "checked_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
  "election_date": "2026-11-03",
  "refresh_mode": "reviewed_snapshot",
  "scope": "Kentucky Senate and US House District 1; no local estimates inferred",
  "polls": [
    {
      "office": "US Senate",
      "election_date": "2026-11-03",
      "geography": {
        "state": "Kentucky",
        "scope": "statewide",
        "county": null
      },
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "publication_date": "2026-09-09",
      "original_report_url": null,
      "mode": null,
      "margin_of_error_pp": 4.0,
      "sponsor": "Charles Booker campaign",
      "sponsor_partisan_status": "Democratic candidate campaign",
      "question_wording": null,
      "weighting": null,
      "county_estimates_available": false,
      "survey_id": "gsg_ky_20260824_20260827",
      "publisher": "Global Strategy Group",
      "election_type": "general",
      "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-24",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-27",
      "population": "likely voters",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "coverage_status": "found",
      "original_report_status": "not_found",
      "evidence_quality": "secondary report verified; original poll instrument missing",
      "candidate_choices_complete": false,
      "baseline_choices": [
        {
          "candidate": "Andy Barr",
          "party": "Republican",
          "percent": 49
        },
        {
          "candidate": "Charles Booker",
          "party": "Democratic",
          "percent": 40
        }
      ],
      "undecided_percent": null,
      "other_percent": null,
      "notes": [
        "Do not infer11% undecided from remainder: published accessible reports do not identify remainder.",
        "Third-party/general ballot choices not fully disclosed; no ChristopherCampbell=0 assumption.",
        "Separate post-information question43/43 is a message test; wording unavailable, exclude from baseline chart/average.",
        "Sponsor disclosure does not verify pollster nonpartisanship.",
        "No independently sponsored general-election survey found in this bounded pass."
      ],
      "margin_of_error_status": "Reported by secondary journalism; sampling basis not independently verified",
      "sources": [
        {
          "source_id": "gsg_fox_original_article",
          "url": "https://fox56news.com/news/kentucky/new-poll-shows-charles-booker-trailing-just-behind-andy-barr-in-race-for-senate/",
          "publisher": "FOX 56 / Will Kenneally",
          "kind": "original_news_report",
          "publication_date": "2026-09-09",
          "coverage_status": "access_limited"
        },
        {
          "source_id": "gsg_fox_syndicated",
          "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/poll-shows-charles-booker-trailing-100200000.html",
          "publisher": "FOX 56 / Will Kenneally, syndicated by AOL",
          "kind": "syndicated_news_report",
          "publication_date": "2026-09-09",
          "coverage_status": "found"
        },
        {
          "source_id": "gsg_hellbender",
          "url": "https://hellbendernewsroom.com/news/elections/booker-barr-polling-us-senate/",
          "publisher": "Hellbender Newsroom / Olivia Krauth",
          "kind": "independent_news_report",
          "publication_date": "2026-09-11",
          "coverage_status": "found"
        }
      ],
      "display_status": "general_election"
    },
    {
      "office": "US Senate",
      "election_date": "2026-11-03",
      "geography": {
        "state": "Kentucky",
        "scope": "statewide",
        "county": null
      },
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "publication_date": null,
      "original_report_url": "https://charlesbooker.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/KentuckyResults.pdf",
      "mode": null,
      "margin_of_error_pp": null,
      "sponsor": "Charles Booker campaign",
      "sponsor_partisan_status": "Democratic candidate campaign",
      "question_wording": null,
      "weighting": null,
      "county_estimates_available": false,
      "survey_id": "ppp_ky_20251218_20251219",
      "publisher": "Public Policy Polling",
      "election_type": "hypothetical_general_preprimary",
      "fieldwork_start": "2025-12-18",
      "fieldwork_end": "2025-12-19",
      "population": "Kentucky voters (not verified as RV or LV)",
      "sample_size": 650,
      "first_verified_news_publication_date": "2025-12-31",
      "original_report_status": "access_limited",
      "coverage_status": "access_limited",
      "evidence_quality": "original PDF locator/index verified; matchup values corroborated by original journalism, full PDF not retrieved",
      "candidate_choices_complete": false,
      "questions": [
        {
          "question_type": "hypothetical_general",
          "choices": [
            {
              "candidate": "Andy Barr",
              "percent": 49
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Charles Booker",
              "percent": 38
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "question_type": "hypothetical_general",
          "choices": [
            {
              "candidate": "Daniel Cameron",
              "percent": 46
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Charles Booker",
              "percent": 39
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "question_type": "hypothetical_general",
          "choices": [
            {
              "candidate": "Nate Morris",
              "percent": 41
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Charles Booker",
              "percent": 40
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "question_type": "generic_general",
          "choices": [
            {
              "candidate": "Generic Republican",
              "percent": 50
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Charles Booker",
              "percent": 36
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "question_type": "generic_general",
          "choices": [
            {
              "candidate": "Generic Republican",
              "percent": 51
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Amy McGrath",
              "percent": 35
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "notes": [
        "One survey wave with multiple questions, not five independent polls.",
        "Pre-nomination hypothetical ballot; never combine as a new 2026 post-primary poll.",
        "Landline/Text crosstab headers indexed, but collection protocol and mode shares not verified.",
        "MOE and undecided shares not verified; retain null rather than calculate."
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "source_id": "ppp_original",
          "url": "https://charlesbooker.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/KentuckyResults.pdf",
          "publisher": "Public Policy Polling, hosted by Charles Booker campaign",
          "kind": "poll_original_report",
          "publication_date": null,
          "coverage_status": "access_limited"
        },
        {
          "source_id": "ppp_news",
          "url": "https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article314061118.html",
          "publisher": "Lexington Herald-Leader / Austin Horn",
          "kind": "original_news_report",
          "publication_date": "2025-12-31",
          "coverage_status": "found"
        }
      ],
      "display_status": "historical_hypothetical"
    },
    {
      "office": "US Senate",
      "election_date": "2026-05-19",
      "geography": {
        "state": "Kentucky",
        "scope": "statewide",
        "county": null
      },
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "publication_date": null,
      "original_report_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2026-poll-barr-maintains-edge-in-gop-primary-as-booker-gains-among-democratic-voters/",
      "mode": "Aristotle voter-file MMS text-to-web and email; Consensus Strategies MMS text-to-web panel; PureSpectrum panel matched by full name and ZIP; English",
      "margin_of_error_pp": null,
      "sponsor": "FOX56 / Nexstar Media",
      "sponsor_partisan_status": "media sponsor; no candidate/party sponsor identified in original release",
      "question_wording": null,
      "weighting": "gender, education, race, age, party registration and region; U.S. Census parameters and voter-file data",
      "county_estimates_available": false,
      "survey_id": "emerson_ky_20260329_20260331",
      "publisher": "Emerson College Polling / FOX56",
      "election_type": "primary",
      "fieldwork_start": "2026-03-29",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-03-31",
      "population": "Kentucky likely voters; primary questions use separate party subgroups",
      "sample_size": 1050,
      "original_report_status": "found",
      "coverage_status": "found",
      "evidence_quality": "original release and linked topline tables",
      "credibility_interval": {
        "overall_plus_minus_pp": 2.9,
        "confidence_level_percent": 95,
        "subgroup_intervals": null
      },
      "candidate_choices_complete": true,
      "questions": [
        {
          "party_primary": "Republican",
          "sample_size": 549,
          "choices": [
            {
              "candidate": "Andy Barr",
              "percent": 28.2
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Nate Morris",
              "percent": 15.4
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Daniel Cameron",
              "percent": 21.1
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Michael Faris",
              "percent": 1.9
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Andrew Shelley",
              "percent": 0.4
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Anissa Catlett",
              "percent": 0.7
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Jonathan Holliday",
              "percent": 0.1
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Jimmy Leon",
              "percent": 0.6
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Valerie Fredrick",
              "percent": 0.9
            },
            {
              "candidate": "George Washington",
              "percent": 1.5
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Undecided",
              "percent": 29.3
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "party_primary": "Democratic",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "choices": [
            {
              "candidate": "Charles Booker",
              "percent": 36.1
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Amy McGrath",
              "percent": 17.9
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Pamela Stevenson",
              "percent": 3.1
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Logan Forsythe",
              "percent": 1.4
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Dale Romans",
              "percent": 1.8
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Vincent Thompson",
              "percent": 1.6
            },
            {
              "candidate": "Undecided",
              "percent": 38.1
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "notes": [
        "Overall2.9 interval is not the interval for either party subgroup.",
        "Primary polling is historical, never a current general-election topline.",
        "Table percentages are published weighted values; rounding may prevent exact100 sum.",
        "Earlier February primary release is a source lead, not an additional normalized survey record here."
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "source_id": "emerson_march",
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2026-poll-barr-maintains-edge-in-gop-primary-as-booker-gains-among-democratic-voters/",
          "publisher": "Emerson College Polling / FOX56",
          "kind": "poll_original_release",
          "publication_date": null,
          "coverage_status": "found"
        },
        {
          "source_id": "emerson_march_tables",
          "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qqj3lDXBzqg7JGB-50iXMgIJYdGjUNiz/edit?gid=1927332809",
          "publisher": "Emerson College Polling",
          "kind": "poll_original_toplines",
          "publication_date": null,
          "coverage_status": "found"
        }
      ],
      "display_status": "historical_primary"
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "forecast_id": "ddhq_senate",
      "office": "US Senate",
      "geography": "Kentucky statewide",
      "publisher": "The Hill / Decision Desk HQ",
      "source_url": "https://elections2026.thehill.com/forecast/2026/senate/kentucky/",
      "source_updated_at": "2026-10-24T14:24:00-04:00",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "rating": "Safe R",
      "metric": "win_probability_percent",
      "win_probabilities": [
        {
          "candidate": "Andy Barr",
          "value": 95,
          "operator": "="
        },
        {
          "candidate": "Charles Booker",
          "value": 5,
          "operator": "="
        }
      ],
      "limit": "Model estimate of winning, not predicted vote share, polling or an election result. Provider lists these candidates; omitted candidates are not assigned zero.",
      "refresh_mode": "reviewed_snapshot"
    },
    {
      "forecast_id": "ddhq_ky1",
      "office": "US House",
      "geography": "Kentucky District 1",
      "publisher": "The Hill / Decision Desk HQ",
      "source_url": "https://elections2026.thehill.com/forecast/2026/house/kentucky-1/",
      "source_updated_at": "2026-10-24T14:24:00-04:00",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "rating": "Safe R",
      "metric": "win_probability_percent",
      "win_probabilities": [
        {
          "candidate": "James Comer",
          "value": 99,
          "operator": ">"
        },
        {
          "candidate": "John Williams",
          "value": 1,
          "operator": "<"
        }
      ],
      "limit": "Model estimate of winning, not predicted vote share, polling or an election result. Provider lists these candidates; omitted candidates are not assigned zero.",
      "refresh_mode": "reviewed_snapshot"
    }
  ],
  "ratings": [
    {
      "rating_id": "cook_senate",
      "office": "US Senate",
      "geography": "Kentucky statewide",
      "publisher": "Cook Political Report",
      "source_url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488586",
      "rating": "Solid R",
      "rating_date": "2025-02-11",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "metric": "qualitative_race_rating"
    },
    {
      "rating_id": "cook_ky1",
      "office": "US House",
      "geography": "Kentucky District 1",
      "publisher": "Cook Political Report",
      "source_url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483126",
      "rating": "Solid R",
      "rating_date": "2025-02-06",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "metric": "qualitative_race_rating"
    },
    {
      "rating_id": "inside_us_senate",
      "office": "US Senate",
      "geography": "Kentucky statewide",
      "publisher": "Inside Elections",
      "source_url": "https://insideelections.com/state-district/ky/",
      "rating": "Solid Republican",
      "rating_date": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "metric": "qualitative_race_rating"
    },
    {
      "rating_id": "inside_us_house",
      "office": "US House",
      "geography": "Kentucky District 1",
      "publisher": "Inside Elections",
      "source_url": "https://insideelections.com/state-district/ky/",
      "rating": "Solid Republican",
      "rating_date": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T15:12:09.883438+00:00",
      "metric": "qualitative_race_rating"
    }
  ],
  "coverage": [
    {
      "geography": "US Senate Kentucky",
      "category": "general_election_polls",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "One2026 post-primary campaign-sponsored poll verified through original reporting; original questionnaire not found. Old2025 hypothetical wave kept separate."
    },
    {
      "geography": "US House KY-01",
      "category": "general_election_polls",
      "status": "not_found",
      "notes": "No original general-election poll found for Comer/Williams; statewide Senate polls do not fill district polling."
    },
    {
      "geography": "Paducah / McCracken",
      "category": "general_election_polls",
      "status": "not_found",
      "notes": "No methodologically documented poll located for clerk,judge-executive,commission,school/judicial/state-local offices. Search absence is not proof no private survey exists."
    },
    {
      "geography": "US Senate Kentucky",
      "category": "expert_ratings",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "Cook and Inside Elections primary pages verified; Sabato dynamic value access_limited."
    },
    {
      "geography": "US House KY-01",
      "category": "expert_ratings",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "Cook and Inside Elections primary pages verified."
    },
    {
      "geography": "US Senate Kentucky",
      "category": "probabilistic_forecasts",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "TheHill/DDHQ public updatedOct24 projection; native dynamic series unavailable."
    },
    {
      "geography": "US House KY-01",
      "category": "probabilistic_forecasts",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "TheHill/DDHQ public updatedOct24 projection, preserve inequality operators."
    },
    {
      "geography": "Paducah / McCracken",
      "category": "probabilistic_forecasts_or_ratings",
      "status": "not_found",
      "notes": "No credible original local-office model/forecast located; do not downscale statewide or congressional forecasts."
    },
    {
      "geography": "Kentucky / KY-01",
      "category": "2026_primary_results",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "44-page official certification, county recap index; complete extraction remains backend-owned."
    },
    {
      "geography": "McCracken / Graves",
      "category": "2026_primary_precinct_results",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "172/60-page official PDFs found; preserve full options, method, party, withdrawn candidate statuses and reporting-unit grain."
    },
    {
      "geography": "McCracken / Graves",
      "category": "historical_official_results",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "2024/2023/2022/2020 report locators/indexes; specific limitations retained per source, not all fully acquired."
    },
    {
      "geography": "Kentucky Senate / KY-01 / local",
      "category": "prediction_market_contracts",
      "status": "access_limited",
      "notes": "Aggregator leads found but no original venue contract/settlement/liquidity/time-verified snapshot in this pass; no market numeric series promoted."
    },
    {
      "geography": "McCracken / Paducah",
      "category": "2026_general_results",
      "status": "not_found",
      "notes": "Election is Nov3,2026. Existing ENR primary/archive or placeholders must not be labeled current general votes."
    },
    {
      "geography": "McCracken / Graves",
      "category": "full_general_ballot_scope",
      "status": "found",
      "notes": "Prior verified composite ballots cover state,county,municipal,judicial,school,amendment contests across different electorates. Backend acquiring full scope; public site currently selected races only."
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "This is a dated evidence snapshot, not a live polling feed or a ProPaducah forecast.",
    "Statewide and congressional findings do not estimate Paducah or McCracken County preferences.",
    "No public local-office general-election poll or credible local forecast was verified in this bounded review.",
    "General, primary and pre-nomination hypothetical surveys remain separate; no polling average is calculated."
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_inventory_id": "propaducah-current-election-evidence-2026-10-25",
    "research_inventory_sha256": "ae815d0e85c4cd12003da27f8e4a347bb6fb05c84663ad078787355ea631af64",
    "numeric_snapshot_verified_on": "2026-10-25",
    "source_body_sha256": null,
    "source_body_note": "Provider facts verified from accessible public pages; no provider API or licensed historical series is connected."
  }
}